The state AFL-CIO’s Friday endorsement of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Glenn Poshard might have catapulted the downstate darling to the front of the primary field, but experts say that may not be enough to offset the expensive television war on the horizon.

With two and half months left before the election, Poshard, with the help of House Speaker Michael Madigan who lobbied on behalf of Poshard in his fight to secure the endorsement, has molded himself into the race’s labor candidate, procuring one of the more consequential endorsements in the campaign.

There are several factors that will determine the winner of the Democratic primary race, said Mike Lawrence, associate director of the SIUC Public Policy Institute and one-time press secretary for Gov. Jim Edgar. The support of organized labor is one of those factors, but certainly not the only factor.

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It’s a significant gain for Poshard.

Though the endorsement serves as an important marker in the race, Poshard must now contend on the airwaves in a wholesale campaign initiated by rival candidate John Schmidt, former U.S. Justice Department official.

To this point, Poshard has reveled in his ability to launch a massive grassroots effort, anchored by a tenacious downstate constituency. This base of conservative blue-collar Democrats seems to be swelling, but as Poshard surges ahead he must combat a better-financed Schmidt, whose affluent north suburban base stands ready for battle.

We’ve out-raised all of our opponents, said Becky Carroll, Schmidt’s press secretary. And we’re ready to fight hard for this nomination.

The estimated cost of a competitive statewide primary campaign is about $2 million. Poshard aide Dave Stricklin says the Marion congressman has raised almost $1 million thus far and hopes to exceed that amount by February. However, Stricklin could not say how much of that figure already has been spent on commercials.

The campaign has been running ads from Springfield to Rockford for about two months and will invade the pricy Chicago television market this week. Consequently, a share of Poshard’s war chest has been exhausted. But with the Friday endorsement, Stricklin is confident his candidate will be able to attract more dollars.

By contrast, Schmidt has raised more than $2 million and has better name recognition in vote-rich Chicago. Schmidt recently unleashed what looks to be a long and expensive paid media effort in Chicago on such issues as gun control, domestic violence, nursing home abuse and the rights of HMO participants. Carroll says the ads will hit downstate markets in coming weeks.

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John Jackson, SIUC vice chancellor for Academic Affairs and provost, said that although Poshard scored an impressive victory with the labor endorsement, it is questionable whether he can compete with Schmidt’s financial firepower in a television campaign.

The next critical part of the race will be this spring on television, Jackson said. You’ve got to be on the television to be competitive.

People do look at how much money a candidate has, and the most well-financed candidate is Schmidt, so this is the next big challenge for [Poshard].

With the addition of Madigan’s silent support, Poshard may be able to initiate a broader fundraising effort, allowing him to be more competitive in the campaign’s final weeks. After much political maneuvering, Poshard was able to enlist the help of Madigan, promising the Chicago Democrat support in downstate House contests. Carroll said Madigan’s presence was the deciding factor in the Poshard endorsement because labor depends heavily on Madigan’s influence in the House.

Unfortunately, this process has been transformed, Carroll said. The question isn’t has labor been endorsing who the best candidate is, but are they willing to defy the Speaker.

The Schmidt camp is downplaying the AFL-CIO vote but will continue to solicit support from the mostly Democratic constituency.

John will continue to campaign night and day for working families, Carroll said. This won’t change our strategy.

The remaining Democratic candidates, former Attorney General Roland Burris and retired U.S. attorney Jim Burns were not available for comment.