It’s almost time for my favorite day of the year: Oscar Sunday!

This year, however, I find myself in an interesting position – for the first time in recent memory, the Oscars are fighting controversy after controversy. From Academy changes, to the telecast format, to the lack of a host to the films themselves coming under scrutiny from all sides, plus many more factors, play into what is likely to be either the most predictable ceremony in history or one of the most insane ceremonies Hollywood has seen.

So, here’s my attempt to break down who could be walking away with the golden statue Sunday night.

Best Picture Nominees
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Black Panther
Dark Horses: Black Panther, Green Book

This category is competitive for all the wrong reasons. Many of the films, in my opinion, do not deserve to be in this category (Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, Vice). Roma seems to be a universal choice. It’s cleaned up all around the individual film guilds in all of the important categories needed.

Still, it should be noted Roma’s status as a “streaming film” on Netflix could hurt it. However, Green Book seems to have found a lot of love with voters despite the numerous controversies involving its star, screenwriter and director. With a Producers Guild win, it wouldn’t be shocking if the film took the prize. But don’t count out Black Panther. It changed the film industry in many ways and elevated comic book movies into something far more than explosions and cool action set pieces. Plus, its surprise win at the SAG Awards could help propel it to the win.

Best Director nominees
Spike Lee,  “BlacKkKlansman”
Paweł Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos,  “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay,  “Vice”

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Dark Horse: Spike Lee

Let’s be very clear here: This award is Alfonso Cuaron’s to lose. It’s a beautiful love letter to his childhood and that message along with his dedication to the film and the amazing craft of the film will absolutely put him on stage accepting his second directing Oscar (Cuaron won in 2014 for Gravity). Still, the academy could not be able to resist rewarding Spike Lee with his first directing prize after his first nomination this year.

Best Actor nominees
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Will Win: Rami Malek
Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Dark Horses: Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper

Based on how this race as gone at other awards shows, Rami Malek should take the Oscar home for his portrayal of Freddie Mercury. Yet, a small part of me believes Bradley Cooper could slip in and win. With no director nomination, a win for Cooper in this category could be a sort of make-up for excluding him from a category he was once considered a frontrunner in. But don’t count out Christian Bale. His portrayal of former VP Dick Cheney is easily the best part of “Vice” and he’s gotten a couple wins along the way as well.

Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman,  “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Will Win: Glenn Close
Should Win: Melissa McCarthy
Dark Horses: Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga

As with the director race, it seems like Glenn Close’s to lose. She’s picked up virtually every single actress prize she’s been nominated for and this year seems like the Academy’s time to reward Close for not only her great performance in “The Wife” but also to finally give her an Oscar. Olivia Colman has been incredibly well regarded, as has Gaga, but it doesn’t appear like either actress has enough steam to take down Glenn Close.

Best Supporting Actor nominees
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Should Win: Richard E. Grant
Dark Horse: Richard E. Grant

It’s a two man race for this supporting category. Grant has won time after time with critics guilds and his performance (one of the best of the year) has been met with nothing but love and acclaim. However, Ali has heat. This is his second nomination after winning in 2017 for “Moonlight”, and Ali and his performance are two of the only things have been unscathed by the backlash and controversies surrounding the film. It seems likely Ali will take home the prize Sunday after winning all of the important awards thus far, but Grant could still squeak in there and take the prize.

Best Supporting Actress nominees
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Will Win: Regina King
Should Win: Regina King
Dark Horse: Amy Adams?

Look, there’s no scenario where Regina King doesn’t win. I’m not gonna waste more print. The only chance for any other nominee to potentially win vanished when Emily Blunt won the SAG award for supporting actress (King wasn’t nominated). Poor Amy Adams. Always the bridesmaid and never the bride.

The Rest…
Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Adapted Screenplay: If Beale Street Could Talk
Animated Feature: Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Foreign Film: Roma
Cinematography: Roma
Costume Design: The Favourite
Film Editing: Vice
Makeup & Hairstyling: Vice
Production Design: Black Panther
Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
Song: “Shallow” (A Star is Born)
Sound Editing: First Man
Sound Mixing: A Star is Born
Visual Effects: Avengers Infinity War
Animated Short: Bao
Documentary Short: Black Sheep
Live Action Short: Marguerite

Staff reporter Kyler Guebert can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter at @kguebert88.

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