Changing his positions on abortion and campaign finance likely would backfire on Democratic gubernatorial nominee Glenn Poshard, says an expert at SIUC. But, the campaign has yet to rule out these possibilities even though a Poshard aide says the candidate will adhere to his deeply-rooted values.

Whether that means the Marion congressman will stick to his guns on abortion and campaign finance like he did during the primary remains unclear. Poshard stands feverishly opposed to abortion, even in the cases of rape and incest. And, on the issue of campaign finance, he has limited his donations to $2,500 per individual and refused money from political action committees and special interests. The harsh reality for Poshard, however, is that many pro-choice voters seem uncomfortable with a field that includes two heavily pro-life candidates. That, coupled with Poshard’s self-imposed limits on fund-raising, has Democratic strategists scrambling to forge a strategy that enables the downstate darling to compete with Ryan’s $5 million war chest and appeal to women’s groups, who recently have vocalized their disfavor with the two candidates.

During the primary, [Poshard] expressed his positions on abortion and campaign spending as matters of principle, said Mike Lawrence, an SIUC political analyst. They’re probably looking at altering their stances on those issues for pragmatic reasons. But, if he does change his positions, especially on abortion, he risks losing a lot of credibility. And you can expect Ryan do make a big deal out of it.

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As Poshard struggles with these decisions, Ryan is watching the drama unfold while preparing his own general election strategy, which partly includes drawing a contrast between Poshard and himself on education funding. Though Poshard spokesman Dave Stricklin could not say whether the Democratic candidate would raise the income tax to bolster education spending and subsequently provide property tax relief, Poshard, before the election, backed a tax swap that included an income tax hike.

Ryan, on the other hand, consistently has opposed an increase in the income tax to fund education. On Sunday, in his first policy speech since the primary, Ryan highlighted this difference, calling for the allocation of at least 51 percent of new revenue growth each year toward education spending and work force training while rejecting an income tax increase.

Despite Poshard’s reluctance to back a tax hike, Ryan’s press aide John Torre insists the downstate congressman is a proponent of the plan and says the Ryan campaign will exploit this position in subsequent months. Torre also underscored some key differences on gun control, trade and the proposed third airport.

On gun control, Poshard opposes the Brady Bill and, until recently, a ban on assault weapons. Ryan is a fervent supporter of the assault weapons ban and the Brady Bill. Torre contends Poshard’s reversal on the position of assault weapons highlights the Democratic nominee’s credibility problem.

Though he admits to the change, Stricklin says his candidate does not have a credibility problem, but rather had maintained a regional perspective before visiting a Cook Country where he had observed the impact of assault-weapon violence.

In addition to the assault weapons ban, Poshard voted against the North American Free Trade Agreement, which Torre says brought hundreds of jobs to Illinois. Torre contends the vote displays Poshard’s opposition to free trade and tendency toward protectionism. Though Poshard backs both proposals now, his initial opposition to a third airport in Peotone and new runways for O’Hare Airport also will be used by Ryan to draw distinctions between the two candidates.

There’s a pattern that’s starting to develop with him, Torre said. He’s changed his positions on assault weapons, new runways at O’Hare, a third airport and during the primary he found every conceivable loophole in his fund-raising pledge, Torre said. There are a lot of inconsistencies here that need to be talked about.

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Despite complaints about the lack of choice in the race, Lawrence argues that gubernatorial campaigns are won on the basis of character, not issues. Though some voters may look at the issues, Lawrence says the majority will base their decision on leadership style and whom they trust most. This may bode well for the conservative Democrat, Poshard, who is reputed for his charismatic campaign style.

Typically, in Illinois gubernatorial elections, there tend to be very few differences between the two candidates, Lawrence said. It all comes down to who the voters believe is the most trustworthy.