local expert analyst boxrimary

By Gus Bode

John Jackson, provost and former political science instructor

I don’t think the polls accurately reflect people’s opinions of the candidates. They have error margins of plus or minus 4 or 5 percent. There are some pretty big gaps there. There could be a fair number of Republicans who may cross over and support Poshard because the Republican race isn’t that interesting. That’s what helped elect Dan Walker over Paul Simon in the 1972 governor’s race. Right now I’m being ambiguous as to who is going to win. It’s still too volatile to make a pick.

Mike Lawrence, associate director of the Public Policy Institute

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I agree with those that say Burris is the front runner, as the polls show. However, I would caution them with saying he will win. Poshard has an excellent chance, even though polls show him trailing. He does well in Southern and downstate Illinois and also does well in some areas of Chicago. His endorsements by [William] Lipinski and [House speaker Michael] Madigan will help him a lot. He also appeals to labor unions and pro-life supporters.

Ami Lilley, president of College Democrats

The polls will fluctuate. You can never rely on them. Burris’ comment will hurt his chances. I think being downstate, it would be easy to say Poshard. If you look at the candidate who has that support in the entire state as a whole, I think Schmidt is the only one who has that ability. I am going to say John Schmidt, because his campaign is still gaining momentum.

Erik Woehrmann, president of College Republicans

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