Fantasy: It’s playoff time
December 11, 2006
It’s hard to believe another fantasy season is almost in the books.
For most leagues, the playoffs have already begun or will begin next week.
Either way, owners must carefully evaluate every player on their team to find the perfect mix of players who can lead them to a fantasy championship.
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There are many factors in deciding on a solid playoff roster. For example, with the Indianapolis Colts at 10-2 and clearly slated to play in the NFL playoffs – which won’t start for another four weeks – Peyton Manning could see limited action in the last two weeks to rest, especially with the Colts playing at Houston and against Miami in their last two games.
Here are some tips to look at when deciding on who should play and who shouldn’t when making a playoff roster.
First of all, pay close attention to the matchups. This is true during the regular season but is especially true this time of year. Owners cannot afford to miss a perfect matchup for their quarterback or running back during the playoffs – missing a favorable matchup could cost you the season.
Don’t just concern yourself with the favorable matchups, though – pay attention to the unfavorable ones as well.
The Chicago Bears will play the Rams and Lions in two of their last four games. While it would be favorable to play the Bears defense, it wouldn’t be favorable to play Marc Bulgur (Rams quarterback) or Jon Kitna (Lions quarterback).
This Sunday, it could work out to your advantage to play Marion Barber III – a favorable matchup. Barber, the Dallas Cowboys’ running back, will face the New Orleans Saints, who have a weak rushing defense.
Matchups like these will be key to your playoff success.
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Another tip when creating your rosters is recent trends – fantasy teams should always be relying on recent trends of who is doing what in the NFL.
For example, Eli Manning and the Giants, who are on a four-game losing streak, have been a complete mess for the last few weeks.
Manning, who has thrown six interceptions and only four touchdowns throughout the losing streak, should be one to keep an eye on.
Manning has steadily decreased his value as the season dwindles, and unless he pulls out of this slump in the next week or so, it could be wise to bench him come game day.
The same goes for Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress and running back Tiki Barber – if Manning doesn’t play well, don’t expect great performances from these guys, either.
On the other side of the coin, positive trends can be a great boost to any fantasy team – none more so than Saints running back Reggie Bush.
Bush was seen as a fantasy flake early in the season – and for good reason – but has turned on the burners as of late.
Last week, against the San Francisco 49ers, Bush scored four touchdowns. Bush said after the game he finally feels comfortable playing in the NFL – this could mean boatloads for the teams that have stuck with Bush throughout his drought. If Bush plays like he did last week for the rest of the season, he could be the sleeper pick of the playoffs.
Finally, look at your quarterback situation. Many teams around the NFL have already tossed their starting QB at the beginning of the season for a younger “next generation” quarterback. Fine examples are Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Vince Young, Tony Romo and Bruce Gradkowski.
Although many teams are set with quarterbacks for the rest of the season, there are still a few teams that could potentially ditch their starting signal caller for another guy.
The Carolina Panthers have seen speculation arise over who will start the final leg of the season. Jake Delhomme has played poor the last few games and could get benched in favor of Chris Weinke.
The fact that Delhomme has missed early week practices increases the possibility that Weinke will start. And if Weinke looks good in his start, expect the Panthers to stick with him.
Teams like Green Bay, Atlanta and Chicago could all see the same things happen to their starting quarterbacks as well.
Weekly BFI:
Value Rising: Tony Romo (QB, DAL); Drew Brees (QB, NO); Donte’ Stalworth (WR, PHI); Chad Johnson (WR, CIN); Reggie Bush (RB, NO); Joseph Addai (RB, IND); Marques Colston (TE/WR, NO)
Value Falling: Eli Manning (QB, NYG); Michael Vick (QB, ATL); Plaxico Burress (WR, NYG); Doug Gabriel (WR, NE); Tatum Bell (RB, DEN); Shaun Alexander (RB, SEA); Tony Gonzalez (TE, KC)
Weekly Matchups:
Minnesota @ Detroit- Jon Kitna should keep his solid fantasy numbers going next week against the so-so defense of Minnesota. Look for Viking running back Chester Taylor to rush for more than 100 yards against the Lions, which is not very good on defense.
Philadelphia @ Washington- With Donovan McNabb out and Jeff Garcia in, the Eagles are getting desperate to make the playoffs. Garcia played well last week, but my bet would be to go with Brian Westrbook as the breakout star for this game.
Denver @ San Diego- Is LaDainian Tomlinson the best running back in the league? Yes. The best ever? Maybe. LT should continue to score multiple TDs at will against a Denver team that has been shaky the last few seasons. Meanwhile, look for Jay Cutler to have decent numbers this week as he could hook up with Javon walker for a score or two.
New Orleans @ Dallas- This should be an absolute shootout. Tony Romo against Drew Brees, two of the NFL’s most successful quarterbacks this season. Look for both to have big games this week as well as the rest of the season. Also look for Marion Barber III to have a big game against New Orleans’ weak rushing defense.
Chicago @ St. Louis- The Bear roll in with a big question mark at quarterback. Rex Grossman has played horrible the last few weeks but this could be the matchup he needed as the Rams boast a relatively soft secondary. I think Grossman will come out strong and have big numbers.
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